The polls are in: Historic loss for Abe, LDP, opposition grabs overwhelming majority

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe led his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a historic loss in Sunday’s Upper House election, where LDP saw almost half of their seats swept away, a loss fully comparable to the disastrous 1989 Upper House election which forced Prime Minister Sosuke Uno to resign.

The ruling coalition’s junior partner, the Komeito party, also lost 3 of its 12 seats, while the opposition, with the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in the lead, grabbed 74 of the 131 seats up for grabs, DPJ alone nearly doubling their seats, from 32 to 60, meaning that the DPJ will be the first opposition party since LDP’s foundation in 1955 to take the role of the largest party in the Upper House. The opposition now holds a total of 137 seats in the Upper House, against the ruling coalition’s 105 seats.

Political commentators have argued that this year’s election would become a vote of confidence for Abe and his Cabinet, their first election since last year’s inauguration. Although calls have been made for Abe’s resignation from outside the party, Abe’s Cabinet has staunchly supported the PM, and late Sunday night, Abe vowed to continue his mandate: “My rebuilding of Japan has only just started. As the Prime Minister, it’s my duty to go on.“

Jiro Yamaguchi, a political science professor at Hokkaido University, commented: “Abe talked about postwar regime issues with great enthusiasm, but these issues did not matter to people. Then when he saw people’s anger was raging … he panicked and tried to take action. But that policymaking style without careful consideration itself created a loss of confidence.” Gerald Curtis, a Japan expert at New York’s Columbia University was more blunt: “Abe is finished.“

The LDP’s campaign was plagued with faux pas-ing ministers and riling scandals. In May, Farm Minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka chose to take his life after being indicted in a political finance scandal. His successor, Norihiko Akagi, did not do much better and was soon embroiled in at least two scandals, both bearing uncanny resemblances to the one that caused the fall of his predecessor. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma was forced to resign in early July after making a remark during a lecture that the U.S. atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki had been “inevitable.“ But the one scandal that overshadowed them all were the millions of missing pension records. Poll after poll showed the pension records issue was the one voters thought were the most concerned about.

LDP performed so miserably they lost out to oppositional candidates in all four Shikoku consituencies, traditionally regarded as LDP strongholds, and several other high-ranking LDP officials saw their constituencies singling out the opposition. In the Okayama constituency, the LDP’s secretary general of the upper house caucus saw his seat taken by DPJ rookieYumiko Himei. In the Shimane constituency, deputy secretary general of the LDP’s upper house caucus Shuntaro Kageyama lost out, even though he was backed by New Komeito and LDP upper house leader Mikio Aoki.

Voter turnout was at 58.64%, 2.07 points higher than the last Upper House election, in 2004. The highest turnout was 71.81% in the Shimane Prefecture constituency, while the lowest, 53.88%, was in the Aomori Prefecture constituency.